Bye-bye, dividend stocks. We’ve had a great run. I know I said I’d hold you forever but it’s clear you’re in a bubble now and it’s time to abandon this strategy before the bubble pops.
Dividend fever has taken hold and driven blue-chip dividend payers to new heights.
Investors flocked to dividend stocks for safety after the market crashed in 2008. Seniors, weary of low interest rates and bond yields, looked to dividend stocks for the steady, growing income.
Dividend stocks have delivered market beating returns for years, but now their time is over.
Dividend investing is old news
Remember my investing policy statement? The one that said I’d buy dividend stocks when they’re value priced and hold them for the long term.
The policy also states that I won’t sell individual stocks unless the dividend is reduced, the dividend pay-out ratio becomes too high, or the company is no longer focused on growing its dividend.
Well, everything was fine when my strategy was working.
My portfolio of dividend growth stocks returned 17% per year from 2009 to 2012. This year has been a different story and it has tested my mettle.
January and February started off hot, up 4 and 3 percent respectively, but things have cooled off since. My portfolio is only up 6.7%, year-to-date.
I can’t sit idly by and watch my boring, defensive dividend stocks tread water while exciting, cyclical growth investments like technology companies and auto manufacturers start to pick up steam.
Heck, even airline stocks like WestJet are soaring high, more than doubling since December 2011 before some recent turbulence.
What’s the next hot sector?
I simply can’t accept mediocre returns and just kick back collecting dividends when I could be investing in companies like AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ), a growth stock that’s up 78% so far this year.
I need to jump into the next hot sector. That’s what winning investors do. Buy low, sell high. Know when your investment has reached its full potential and take your profits. Then catch the next shooting start before it takes off. Rinse and repeat – it’s that simple.
After all, even blue-chip companies that have been delivering steady returns for decades are susceptible to a downturn, and you don’t want to be caught holding on to a loser.
Sure, companies like Telus have sent bullish signals, projecting to grow its dividend by 10% per year through 2016. But that’s surely a sign of overconfidence, not an indicator of strong business growth.
Bond yields are rising as the economy improves, which spells trouble for dividend stocks and REITs. With interest rates projected to rise soon, blue chip dividend growth stalwarts like Fortis, TransCanada Corp and BCE are expected to slump.
Those old, stodgy widow-and-orphan stocks don’t stand a chance in the new economy where growth is king.
Holding steady, just like dividends
On second thought, do I really want to invest in non-dividend paying stocks, or buy cyclical stocks that’ll pay dividends until the first sign of trouble in the economy?
I’m not very confident in my ability to successfully time the market, jumping from dividend stocks to growth stocks at the bottom and top of each cycle.
Remember, companies that pay dividends post better results than companies that do not – achieving that nearly two-thirds of the time since 1973.
Related: Why I Became A DIY Investor
Among those stocks, the ones that grow their dividends have achieved even better results over the past 30 years – 10.3% per year versus 7.6% for stocks that don’t increase dividends.
What about those non-dividend paying stocks? They produced returns of just 1.6% per year over the same 30 year period.
What about share buy backs; aren’t they just as good as a dividend increase? Not exactly. Since 1979, companies who grew or initiated dividends outperformed those who repurchased shares.
- Dividend growers – 10.6% compound annual growth rate
- Repurchase growers – 8.8% compound annual growth rate
- S&P 500 – 7.7% CAGR compound annual growth rate
Dividend stocks can also lower the overall volatility in your portfolio, smoothing out returns while providing protection against inflation with rising income.
There’s no doubt that dividend investing falls in-and-out of favour over the years.
When they’re in favour, dividends provide the safety and income that investors seek in troubled times. When they’re out of favour, dividends can’t compete with real drivers of growth like research and innovation.
I may have had a momentary lapse in judgement, but I’ve come to my senses. I’m not saying goodbye to dividend investing.
Sure, I may take more care when deciding whether to buy a new company or add to an existing position. This isn’t 2009 when bargains could be found across all sectors.
But I’m not going to hop from one investing strategy to the next just because some rough waters are ahead.
I’m still going to save, and I’ll continue to call myself a dividend investor – buying stocks when they’re value priced and holding them for the long term. That’s what my investing policy says.